Everyone says gaming is booming in 2025, with $188.9 billion in revenue and more players than ever, so why do most developers feel smaller and poorer than before? If the pie is bigger than ever, why does your slice keep shrinking?
Game Publishing in 2025: More Games, Less Visibility
In 2024, nearly 19,000 new games were released on Steam. By mid-2025, the counter is on pace with 2024’s record of 20k titles. Meanwhile, the global games market is projected to hit $188.9 billion this year (+3.4% YoY). On paper, this looks like a golden era. In practice, for developers, it feels smaller than ever.
Not because demand is shrinking, but because supply has exploded.
The paradox is sharp: the market is expanding, but opportunities for individual games are shrinking. Developers trying to publish and promote in 2025 face harder odds, higher costs, tougher benchmarks, and fast-shifting business models.
This article breaks down what’s working, what’s not, how promotion is done today, what it costs, and how the industry feels right now.
The Market Is Growing—But Not for Everyone
After years of stagnation, the industry is climbing again. According to Newzoo, the global games market will generate $188.9 billion in 2025, up 3.4% from 2024. PC and console software alone accounts for $85.2 billion. Mobile gaming, which dipped under the weight of privacy regulations and weaker ad performance, is bouncing back: in-app purchases reached $81–82 billion in 2024, +4% YoY, while playtime rose by 8%.
Consumption trends support this rebound. In Q2 2025, gamers watched 9.1 billion hours of livestreaming content (+5% YoY). YouTube Gaming hit an all-time high of 2.2 billion hours. Engagement and spending are up, but this growth doesn’t automatically trickle down to developers. In fact, for most, it feels like the opposite.
The Publishing Problem: Oversupply and Scarcity of Attention
Nowhere is oversupply more obvious than on Steam. Nearly 19,000 games launched in 2024, compared to fewer than 6,000 a decade ago. By August 2025, 12,800 games have already gone live. On mobile, the situation is worse: millions of apps compete for installs, while downloads fell 7% last year even as spending rose.
The outcome is structural discoverability failure. Data from GameDiscoverCo shows a median ~10% wishlist-to-sale conversion in week one, but with massive spread. Only a small fraction of titles gain enough traction to break through.
The hidden barrier is visibility. Developers consistently report that ~250 reviews within the first month is the unofficial threshold where Steam’s algorithms start to amplify a title. Fail to cross that line, and you vanish into the long tail.
Steam Next Fest remains a powerful beat, but not a silver bullet. A February 2025 survey shows games entering with fewer than 1,000 wishlists gained around 300–460 during the event. Games starting with 10,000 wishlists added another 6,000+. In short: pre-event momentum decides outcomes.
Promotion in 2025: Creators, Discord, and Rising CPIs
So how do developers promote in 2025? The old routes, press, trailers, and ads, still matter, but only when combined with new channels.
1. Creators are gatekeepers. YouTube and TikTok set the pace. Twitch still dominates livestreaming (54% market share), but YouTube Gaming is growing fastest, and TikTok delivers the most affordable install spikes. Costs, however, are climbing: micro-creators now average $119 CPM, while nano-creators can command $211 CPM. For small studios, that’s a steep entry fee.
2. Discord is now distribution. In 2025, Discord rolled out a Social SDK that integrates chat, voice, and invites directly into games. Studios like Theorycraft and Facepunch are early adopters, but indies are also leveraging it. A pre-launch Discord community of 1,000–2,000 active fans often translates into stronger Next Fest performance and early retention.
3. Paid UA can cost more than development. On mobile, cost-per-install (CPI) rates remain high: $2.5–3.5 on iOS and $1.5–2.5 on Android. TikTok and YouTube CPMs range from $10 to $25, depending on genre and region. A rough rule of thumb: 25–40% of a game’s total budget goes to marketing. A €500,000 production may require €125,000–200,000 in marketing just to stand a chance.
4. Events and release beats. Next Fest still matters, but so do demos, open playtests, and platform showcases (ID@Xbox, PlayStation Indies). Developers who stack multiple beats (demo + beta + showcase) often see 3–5x more wishlists than those who rely on a single launch event.
Business Models: Premium, F2P, Hybrid
Revenue models in 2025 are more fragmented than ever.
- PC/Console: Premium pricing still works, but only with strong community engagement and post-launch support. Live-service is not dead, but publishers are more selective—Sony cut multiple projects in 2025.
- Mobile: Hybrid monetization (IAP + ads) grew 37% YoY. Pure ad-driven or pure IAP-driven games are losing ground.
- Subscriptions: In the U.S., spending on game subscriptions hit record highs in June and July 2025. For indies, this offers opportunity, but payouts are opaque and depend heavily on platform-holder deals.
- Store economics: Steam remains at its 30% cut (dropping to 25% above $10M and 20% above $50M). Epic Games Store, meanwhile, made headlines in June 2025 with a new deal: 0% store fee on the first $1M annual revenue per product, then 88/12 after. For small studios, that’s game-changing.
Where Developers Go Wrong
Three mistakes dominate the landscape:
1. Starting marketing too late. Many developers put up their Steam page only 3–4 months before launch. The result: too few wishlists, no Next Fest traction, and a weak launch.
2. Misreading wishlists. The old “0.2 sales per wishlist” rule is dangerously simplistic. Conversion depends heavily on genre, price point, press, and community. A roguelike with 10,000 wishlists might convert at 15%. A niche sim with the same list might see only 2%.
3. Underestimating costs. Influencer campaigns look cheap from the outside. In reality, a mid-tier YouTube integration can cost $10,000–15,000. TikTok creators can charge $2,500 for a single clip. Without buffers, marketing budgets evaporate after one experiment.
The Mood in 2025: Heavy but Not Hopeless
The GDC 2025 State of the Industry Survey captures the mood. 1 in 10 developers lost their jobs in the past year. Over 50% self-fund their projects, while only a third have publisher or investor backing. One-third of studios now use generative AI in production pipelines, but with as much anxiety as optimism.
Layoffs remain widespread. Multiple mobile studios cut hundreds of roles. Estimates suggest 3,500–4,400 workers have been affected so far in 2025.
And yet, optimism exists. Subscriptions are growing. Hybrid monetization works. Discord and community-first approaches give small studios more leverage. The mood across the industry is split: heavy with layoffs and oversupply but energized by new niches and models.
Conclusion: The Paradox of 2025
The games market in 2025 is growing. But the odds for individual games are shrinking. Promotion often costs more than development. Discoverability is the real bottleneck. And business models are shifting under developers’ feet.
The paradox is clear: games are more popular than ever, but success feels rarer than ever. To survive, developers must rethink the fundamentals.
Three lessons stand out:
- Start early. Put your Steam page live a year in advance. Build community. Build momentum.
- Budget realistically. Expect 25–40% of your budget to go to marketing, not code.
- Choose your model wisely. Premium can still work. Hybrid is growing. Subscriptions are risky but rewarding.
In 2025, the market doesn’t reward the best game. It rewards the best-discovered game.
In a War for Attention, Thrum Is the Compass
That’s the paradox we built Thrum (Test it on WhatsApp) to solve. If the industry keeps rewarding only the best-discovered games, then discovery itself has to change.
Not through ads or noise, but through emotional fit, real conversations, and smarter ways to connect players with the right titles. In 2025, publishing is war for attention, Thrum is the compass.
